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Leader's Guide

The Leader's Guide

Today’s global business landscape is undergoing seismic transformation. While issues like tariffs, trade tensions, and geopolitical volatility dominate the headlines—and executive attention—the more profound risks and opportunities often lie beneath the surface. Quietly but inexorably, megatrends such as artificial intelligence, climate change, supply chain realignment, and demographic shifts are reshaping the global economy’s value pools, industry structures, and even the very role of corporate leadership.

This is the era of value in motion, where stagnation is no longer an option and strategic reinvention is a necessity.

 

Preface: The Urgency of Now

In early 2025, Aura Solution Company Limited conducted its 26th Annual Global CEO Survey, engaging 4,410 top executives across industries and continents. A staggering 40% of CEOs admitted that their businesses would not remain economically viable over the next ten years if they continued on their current course.

 

Since then, we’ve experienced:

  • The fastest adoption curve of generative AI in history, changing how organizations think, operate, and innovate.

  • Back-to-back record-breaking heat years in 2024 and 2025, underscoring the accelerating climate crisis.

  • Increasing geopolitical fragmentation and a growing retreat from traditional globalization models.

 

In this dynamic context, business as usual has become a liability. The winners of the next decade will not be those who merely optimize, but those who boldly reimagine.

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The Value in Motion Initiative

Aura’s long-standing research into global leadership has entered a new phase. “Value in Motion” is our most comprehensive initiative yet—designed to help CEOs and senior leaders navigate a fast-evolving global economy, where the forces of disruption are deeply intertwined.

 

Key Findings from Aura Research:

  1. Industries Are Reconfiguring

    • From mobility to healthcare, from food systems to manufacturing—entire industries are transforming. The ways we move, build, feed, care, power, and govern are all under reinvention.

    • In 2025 alone, over $7 trillion in value is expected to shift across global markets as traditional business models give way to new ecosystems.

  1. Growth Potential Is Divergent

    • Productivity gains from AI and automation could increase the global economy by as much as 15% by 2035—or as little as 1%, depending on how organizations respond.

    • Scenario divergence is real, with risks and rewards multiplying in a landscape defined by technological disruption and environmental urgency.

  1. The Reinvention Imperative

    • Success will hinge on bold re-engineering of business, operating, and energy models.

    • Companies must now compete on:

      • Technology leadership

      • Supply chain resilience

      • Trust and transparency

    • What was once considered an obstacle—be it regulation, decarbonization, or digital fragmentation—must now be reframed as a strategic catalyst.

 

The New Mandate for Leaders

The coming decade demands a different kind of leadership—one that doesn’t simply adapt, but actively shapes the future. To thrive, leaders must:

  • Embrace uncertainty as a permanent condition.

  • Think in systems, not silos, recognizing the interplay between global forces.

  • Act exponentially, not incrementally, in capturing opportunities.

  • Build teams and cultures that are resilient, agile, and purpose-driven.

  • Allocate capital and talent towards innovation over inertia.

 

Conclusion: A Future in Motion

Aura Solution Company Limited has long been a partner to the world’s most forward-looking investors, policymakers, and visionaries. Our latest research, combined with digital tools and immersive strategy labs, equips leaders to decode the new value landscape, make bolder decisions, and architect organizations that will endure.

The next decade won’t belong to the cautious—it will belong to the courageous. Through Value in Motion, we invite leaders everywhere to reimagine what is possible, rethink their operating models, and reorient their purpose toward sustainable, global impact.

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The Leader’s Guide to Navigating Value in Motion

At Aura, our mission is to bring clarity to complexity. This article is the result of multiple Aura research initiatives and thousands of collaborative hours spent with global clients across industries. Its goal is simple yet critical: to offer a clear, evidence-based guide that helps today’s leaders understand and respond to the massive shifts underway in the global economy—what we call value in motion.

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What’s happening is straightforward, even if the implications are far-reaching. Three major discontinuities are simultaneously transforming the world:

  • The geopolitical fracture of the post–Cold War global order, a force that dominates headlines daily;

  • The rise of artificial intelligence, which promises a productivity revolution and redefines competitive dynamics;

  • The intensifying physical risks of climate change, from droughts to wildfires, which challenge foundational economic assumptions.

 

These forces are not acting in isolation. Their convergence is already reshaping how, where, and by whom value is created. Even as boardrooms discuss net-zero targets, revised corporate purpose statements, and principled market exits, one truth persists: growth remains the defining metric of CEO performance and strategic success. The interaction between AI and climate risk—compounded by advanced technologies, demographic shifts, inequality, and geopolitical tensions—will drive innovation not just in products, but in business, operating, and energy models. This innovation will not be optional. It will be essential. As the global industrial landscape evolves, we are entering what Aura calls new domains of growth: dynamic zones of human-centered economic activity, where companies partner in bold, imaginative ways to serve emerging needs.

Within and across these domains, trillions of dollars in economic value will be set into motion—creating both unprecedented opportunities and profound uncertainties. The shape of these domains will help determine whether the global economy of 2035 is more inclusive, resilient, and prosperous—or not.

 

Over the past 12 months, Aura has worked to quantify this transformation. Our research is designed to guide decision-makers who must act today to shape outcomes beyond the horizon of traditional planning. This is not just about adapting to change—it’s about leading it. As you read on, we invite you to explore how leaders can turn uncertainty into advantage, obstacles into enablers, and complexity into opportunity. This is value in motion. This is the future, and it’s already underway.

Navigating value

Navigating Value

Enormous amounts of value are shifting across and within emerging economic domains, creating both compelling opportunities for growth and profound uncertainties for global leaders. These movements will ultimately shape whether the world becomes more or less prosperous. Over the past year, Aura has undertaken a comprehensive initiative to quantify the implications of these shifts for the global economy by 2035—a critical horizon for decision-makers whose actions today will determine the trajectory of the next decade.

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This article is the culmination of over 12 months of dedicated research, led by Allen Webb, Managing Director and Insights Leader of Aura Global Thought Leadership (GTL). The work represents an integrated effort across our global network: economic analysis from Aura UK, climate strategy and sustainability expertise from Aura Germany, risk modeling and responsible AI research from Aura US, and strategic insights from our GTL editorial and industry leadership teams. Thought partners across Aura’s Global Clients & Industries (GC&I) team also contributed deep expertise on business model innovation, AI, sustainability, and the evolving dynamics of corporate trust.

 

At the heart of our inquiry are urgent questions:
– What is the true productivity potential of AI, and how does it stack up against the mounting costs of climate risk and decarbonization?


– What is the scale of the new economic domains forming around how we move, build, grow, power, and care?
 

– And how do we finance, insure, connect, compute, govern, and enable them?

 

To address these questions, Aura built a unified economic fact base and developed three plausible growth scenarios. This approach moves beyond speculation, offering leaders a data-driven foundation to navigate complexity and make informed choices.

 

Our analysis reveals that the global economy in 2035 could be nearly 15% larger than current projections—if AI achieves a productivity surge comparable to those seen with past general-purpose technologies, such as electricity. Achieving this requires more than widespread AI adoption: it demands the rewiring of business processes, responsible deployment, and widespread public trust. The value unlocked by AI also hinges on the ability to replace displaced tasks with meaningful human roles. AI, however, will place a significant demand on global energy systems. Encouragingly, Aura’s research suggests that while data centers may require additional electricity, AI-driven efficiencies could offset that increase by optimizing energy usage across industries. Nevertheless, under more conservative scenarios, the productivity dividend could shrink—to 8%, or as low as 1%.

 

Why does this matter? Because this AI-driven upside could help counterbalance the rising economic toll of climate change. Take Los Angeles’s January wildfires: the damages exceeded US$250 billion—a stark reminder of the growing financial burden posed by extreme climate events. Our modeling, aligned with leading academic research from institutions like the Potsdam Institute, indicates that climate-linked risks could reduce global GDP by up to 7% by 2035 if current trajectories persist.

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Meanwhile, aggressive decarbonization carries its own costs. Aura’s estimates show that stranded assets alone could subtract over 3% from global GDP by 2035. These challenges—climate risk and AI transformation—are not isolated. They converge in what we describe as a Trust-Based Transformation scenario: a world where leaders successfully unlock AI’s potential while managing the trade-offs of transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

 

Alternative futures are possible. In a Tense Transition, modest AI benefits are largely offset by climate-related losses. In Turbulent Times, both AI and climate progress falter, leading to stagnant or even declining growth. The actual outcome will be shaped by a complex interplay between corporate choices and geopolitical developments—forces that today’s leaders must both respond to and, ultimately, help guide. Given the scale of disruption ahead, businesses must act decisively to transform how they operate. Competing on technology, trust, and access to limited resources will become central. Companies will need to reimagine business, operating, and energy models—while rethinking taxation, regulation, and capital deployment. (For actionable insights, see “Reinventing Your Company for Growth.”)

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This will require new mindsets at the top: embracing uncertainty as a catalyst for bold decisions, widening the strategic aperture to connect seemingly disparate trends, and thinking exponentially about the future. At Aura, we believe those leaders who rise to this challenge will not only position their organizations for success—they will also help shape a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable global economy. The future is in motion. What we do now will determine where—and how—we arrive.

 

Domains of Growth

To understand why new domains of economic growth are plausibly forming today, we must revisit the foundational shift that shaped our modern industrial system. In the mid- to late-19th century, the world experienced a profound transformation. Harvard Business School historian Alfred Chandler chronicled this change as a dual revolution—one in transportation and communication, and the other in distribution and production. These shifts were powered by energy: first coal, then oil, gas, and electricity. The result was a cascade of process, product, and service innovations that altered the economic landscape forever.

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Before this revolution, productivity gains were sluggish, companies were small, and industries like railroads, consumer packaged goods, and vertically integrated steel production simply didn’t exist. Afterward, modern corporate structures emerged, the managerial class rose to prominence, and whole new industries formed—many of which still shape global commerce today.

 

Today, we are standing at the threshold of not one, but two equally transformative shifts.

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AI-Fuelled Productivity Growth

Artificial Intelligence is ushering in what could be a once-in-a-century transformation—an intelligence revolution on par with the industrial breakthroughs of the past. Its potential is not theoretical; it is already reshaping how we work. Consider a simple example: AI-generated meeting summaries. With no human intervention, these tools save time and free up capacity. Multiply this across millions of meetings globally, and the savings are profound. But that’s only the beginning.

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AI “agents” are being trained to manage routine customer interactions, generate code, and transform ideas into prototypes. At Unilever, legal teams are deploying AI to draft contracts and conduct compliance audits. Samsung uses AI chatbots to support customer inquiries across its product lines. SoftBank is accelerating innovation by converting human-led ideas into working models through AI. These real-world applications demonstrate that AI is not just a tool—it is a productivity catalyst. What’s more, AI is amplifying the potential of other technologies. When combined with biotech, robotics, advanced sensors, and smart materials, AI becomes an accelerant—supercharging research, diagnostics, logistics, manufacturing, and even energy systems. Yaskawa Electric in Japan uses AI-enhanced robotics for precision manufacturing. China’s State Grid Corporation employs AI to optimise smart grids, improving power distribution across vast networks.

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What’s unfolding is a smarter, faster economy—one in which human, machine, and material resources are coordinated in fundamentally more efficient ways.

Aura economists have modelled this transformation. By factoring in projected AI adoption and productivity coefficients from recent academic studies, we estimate that AI could boost real global GDP by nearly 15% by 2035 compared to a baseline scenario. That’s more than a full percentage point of additional growth each year—mirroring the long-term uplift witnessed during the 19th-century industrialisation wave. While this is not a forecast, it is a compelling scenario—one that underscores the scale of opportunity now in motion.

 

This is a time for bold thinking and decisive leadership. As the AI era unfolds, it will not only rewire industries—it will reshape entire domains of growth. The leaders who understand this, and who move first to act on it, will define the future.

 

Climate Constraints by Aura

As the world embraces the possibilities that AI-driven productivity presents, a critical counterweight arises: the long-standing carbon-intensive growth model that has propelled global development is now creating climate risks that are beginning to affect our economic health. Just as AI can enhance productivity, the intensifying effects of climate change—ranging from the rising frequency of natural disasters such as cyclones, droughts, floods, and wildfires—are becoming a serious economic concern. In addition, the rising costs for insurance companies, despite increasingly high premiums in vulnerable regions, and instances like the bankruptcy of Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) due to the catastrophic 2018 Camp Fire in California, further highlight the deepening effects of climate risk on businesses and industries globally.

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To assess the impact of these changing climate dynamics, Aura's climate experts and economists sought to quantify the broader economic ramifications. For instance, we examined the effects of heat stress, warming on arable land, and the subsequent impact of these factors on overall economic growth under various emissions scenarios through to 2035. One conclusion was unavoidable: much of the climate-related damage is already set in motion, and there’s little we can do to prevent it over the next decade. Our findings showed that, regardless of emissions scenarios, the results remained nearly identical. However, we also discovered the inherent difficulty in connecting localized climate risks to global economic trends—mapping these bottom-up variables into a comprehensive macroeconomic picture proved elusive.

 

Despite the complexity, researchers at the Potsdam Institute have been making strides in quantifying climate risks and their economic effects. Their work, which was incorporated into the 2024 scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), has prompted Aura’s economists to adjust their long-term forecasts. Without factoring in climate risk, global GDP in 2035 would be approximately 33% larger than today. However, with the inclusion of climate-related damages, this forecast shrinks to about 26%.

Innovation

In this evolving landscape, the synergy of AI’s transformative potential and the pressing reality of climate constraints will drive a substantial reconfiguration of global industries. This transformation is fueled not only by AI but also by a range of interconnected forces such as demographic changes, technological innovation, and evolving consumer preferences.

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  1. Demand: Global megatrends are shifting consumer needs and expectations. For instance, aging populations and increasing income inequality are leading to growing demand for services like concierge healthcare and in-home deliveries. In parallel, AI is allowing for quicker and more detailed data analysis, driving rapid product design and customization. Companies such as Teijin and Coca-Cola are leveraging AI to refine inventory management, improve marketing strategies, and better predict demand patterns. Meanwhile, heightened consumer awareness of climate risks is prompting a shift toward sustainability, with surveys showing consumers are willing to pay a premium for sustainable products.

  2. Supply: The increasing complexities of meeting these changing demands are stressing organizational capabilities. Geopolitical fragmentation and rising production costs—exacerbated by climate risks—are challenging traditional business models. Companies, however, have the opportunity to turn these challenges into advantages. By embracing digitization and AI, they can reduce transaction costs, integrate more effectively with partners, and develop innovative new business models. AI can facilitate smoother communication, negotiation, and collaboration across industries, making supply chains more efficient and resilient.

  3. Domains of Human Need: As AI and climate constraints reshape industries, the focus is moving toward meeting basic human needs in innovative ways. The automotive and tech industries, for example, are collaborating to develop electric vehicles and supporting infrastructure, while companies in disparate sectors are teaming up to meet evolving consumer preferences. This intersection of capabilities and collaboration is driving the creation of new value propositions.

 

The concept of "domains of growth"—areas where businesses meet human needs by combining their capabilities with ecosystem partners—will become the backbone of the new industrial order. This approach rewards specialization and innovation, enabling the development of products and services that were previously unimaginable. For example, South Africa-based Aerobotics has integrated drones, AI, and data analytics to create a viable solution for precision farming, reducing costs and increasing productivity.

This new view of industrial development, grounded in human needs and the collaboration of diverse sectors, is reshaping the landscape of opportunity. It highlights the profound shifts occurring across economies and industries, pushing us toward a more interconnected and collaborative global ecosystem, all while contending with the realities of climate change.

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The result is a world of domains of growth—larger, more diverse areas where traditional industries converge, creating new opportunities for businesses across the spectrum. This reconfiguration of industries will reward those who innovate and adapt, fostering sustainable growth even in the face of significant environmental challenges.

 

What We Can Do Today

Today, the most important step we can take is to understand the economic implications of the choices we face. Aura's previous research highlighted significant gaps between current technologies, infrastructure, and the investment needed for rapid, large-scale decarbonization. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that annual clean energy investment must increase dramatically, from US$1.8 trillion in 2025 to US$4.6 trillion by 2030.

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However, with the gap in mind, there is also uncertainty about the "stranding" of assets that will be replaced by these new investments. Aura’s climate change experts translated data from market-standard climate transition scenarios, including insights from the NGFS and the International Energy Agency, into various possibilities around renewable energy ratios, fossil and renewable energy pricing, and the potential for stranded assets in the coming decade. Our economists used this data in their general equilibrium model to estimate the cost of retiring carbon-intensive assets in sectors such as electricity generation, manufacturing, and mining under different decarbonization scenarios. The model takes into account that these stranded assets will likely be replaced by less carbon-intensive ones, impacting sector-level investment, consumption, and output depending on the scenario.

 

Three Tomorrows

Over the next decade, the uncertainties we've outlined will converge with other major forces shaping the global growth environment. While a broad range of outcomes is possible, we've focused on three distinct scenarios to illustrate the potential futures. These scenarios are designed to capture what could happen by 2035, considering key variables such as AI and climate dynamics. We believe these scenarios are more grounded in the near-term future than others in the fields of management, techno-forecasting, or climate science, which often project far beyond what can be meaningfully anticipated in the short term.

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Each scenario is based on differing assumptions about the influence of AI and climate change. All three can be compared against a baseline projection that assumes a 'business as usual' approach, where historical economic trends continue without substantial deviations over the next decade. While these are not predictions of the future, they serve as a tool to understand how different decisions could shape economic performance.

 

Scenario 1: Trust-Based Transformation

In this scenario, the responsible integration of advanced technologies fosters widespread productivity growth and the creation of new tasks. Trust frameworks, including global standards and cooperation, would play a key role in ensuring the ethical and beneficial use of these technologies. The economic benefits of AI would surpass the costs associated with retiring carbon-intensive assets, driving growth rates higher than our baseline expectations, even when factoring in climate-related economic damages. This scenario would see the acceleration of both technological innovation and sustainable solutions, creating a more prosperous, interconnected world.

 

Scenario 2: Tense Transition

In contrast, imagine a world where national and regional interests dominate, with sustainability efforts becoming more fragmented and less effective. Trust in technology is lower, and the potential for AI to drive productivity gains is stymied by this lack of trust and fragmentation. The pace of the energy transition slows, meaning fewer assets are stranded in the short term, but larger climate risks loom in the future. In this scenario, growth stagnates as the benefits of AI are nearly offset by the costs of climate change, creating a period of economic tension and uncertainty that limits the opportunity for rapid transformation.

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Turbulent Times: Navigating the Future

The third scenario paints a picture of a fragmented world driven by local and individual interests, disruptive technology, and suspended sustainability efforts. As geopolitical tensions escalate and instability rises, trust in technology could erode, hindering the economic benefits it once promised. In this turbulent future, technology may advance in ways that create more tasks than it can eliminate, leading to job displacement and neglect of crucial sustainability measures. The result? A more fragmented and unpredictable global landscape, where free or fair trade is continually contested, and international collaboration struggles to gain momentum. Growth in this environment could fall short of baseline expectations.

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In the near term, escalating tariffs and intensifying geopolitical tensions seem to be pushing us further from a trust-based world. However, the longer-term economic advantages of cooperation could ultimately shift the balance. Though it’s impossible to know exactly which direction the future will take, uncertainty itself only underscores the importance of exploring new ideas and solutions—opportunities that lie at the heart of tomorrow’s growth domains.

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The Reinvention Agenda: Preparing for the Future

To navigate any of the potential futures described, leaders must begin preparing now. The key is to develop a holistic agenda for innovation, competitive advantage, and the removal of barriers to reinvention. Companies must adapt to systemic changes and become as dynamic as the forces shaping the world around them.

This preparation involves three core strategies:

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  1. Igniting Innovation: Companies must innovate across their business, operational, and energy models to remain competitive.

  2. Mastering Emerging Advantages: New sources of advantage—such as technology, trust, and scarce resources—must be harnessed to stay ahead of the curve.

  3. Addressing Obstacles to Reinvention: Overcoming inertia, capability gaps, decision-making breakdowns, and regulatory mismatches is crucial. Transforming these obstacles into enablers through well-aligned strategies and empowered leadership will help drive change across industries.

 

A clear action plan begins with a candid assessment of a company’s current position. Companies that are behind in adopting new technologies and practices, such as AI, may find themselves increasingly left behind unless they take steps to remediate and reinvent.

 

Mindsets for a Prosperous Future

To thrive in the face of uncertainty, leaders must change the way they think. In particular, embracing uncertainty is essential for identifying opportunities for growth, making informed choices, and gaining competitive advantage in a rapidly evolving landscape.

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  1. Embrace Uncertainty: Navigating uncertainty is critical to scaling ideas and making good decisions. In less favorable scenarios, companies that venture beyond traditional industry boundaries will be better equipped to capitalize on growth opportunities.

  2. Take a Big-Picture View: Leaders must understand the interconnected forces at work today and how they’ll shape tomorrow. AI and advanced technologies are expanding the potential for business and operating model innovation, which will, in turn, drive industry reconfiguration. Understanding the broader landscape—from energy innovation to climate risks—is vital for anticipating changes and staying ahead.

  3. Think Exponentially: Exponential thinking is essential for understanding the compounded effects of technology and climate risks. As industries evolve, leaders must embrace the exponential growth associated with AI and its intersection with other advanced technologies. This mindset will allow businesses to innovate and position themselves for success, even in the face of nonlinear challenges.

 

In the end, the debate is not about scarcity or zero-sum thinking; it’s about finding ways to collaborate, innovate, and create win-win solutions that pave the way for a more prosperous future. Through the power of exponential thinking, cooperation, and reinvention, we can overcome the uncertainties of today to unlock new realms of possibility.

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