Polyrethane Economy

Polyurethane is a versatile material used in a wide range of industries, including construction, automotive, and furniture. The polyurethane industry is a significant contributor to the global economy, with a market size estimated to be around $70 billion in 2020. Here are some key facts and figures about the polyurethane economy:

1 Growing Demand: The demand for polyurethane is growing, driven by factors such as urbanization, infrastructure development, and the increasing use of lightweight materials in automotive and aerospace industries. The global polyurethane market is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 7.2% from 2021 to 2026.

2 Diverse Applications: Polyurethane is used in a wide range of applications, including building insulation, bedding and furniture, footwear, coatings, adhesives, and sealants. This diversity of applications makes polyurethane a versatile material with a wide range of end uses.

​

3 Environmental Impact: The polyurethane industry has faced criticism for its environmental impact, particularly in relation to the use of fossil fuels in production and the disposal of waste products. However, the industry is also making efforts to improve its sustainability, through initiatives such as the development of bio-based polyurethane and the use of recycled materials.

​

4 Regional Markets: The polyurethane industry is global, with major producers and consumers located in regions such as North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Asia Pacific region is the largest market for polyurethane, driven by factors such as rapid urbanization and infrastructure development.

5 Key Players: The polyurethane industry is dominated by a few key players, including BASF, Covestro, Dow, Huntsman, and Wanhua Chemical Group. These companies have a significant presence in the global market and invest heavily in research and development to drive innovation and growth.

In conclusion, the polyurethane industry is a significant contributor to the global economy, driven by growing demand and diverse applications. While the industry has faced criticism for its environmental impact, efforts are being made to improve sustainability and develop more eco-friendly products. The global polyurethane market is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, driven by factors such as urbanization, infrastructure development, and the increasing use of lightweight materials in various industries.

Key Points

• Why the U.S. economy continues to display polyurethane-like flexibility and resilience, despite encountering extraordinary shocks.

• How portfolios can also be built with flexibility and resilience in mind.

• Why high-quality fixed income assets are today a critical component of this more polyurethane-like portfolio.

Kitchen sponges, ski boots, luxury mattresses and nuclear submarine missile housings have something in common – they all contain polyurethane. In just over 80 years, polyurethane has gone from being undiscovered to one of the most widely used substances on Earth, largely due to some valuable characteristics: flexibility and adaptability, but also durability and strength. Its ability to be stretched, bent, stressed and flexed without breaking, while in fact returning to its original condition, is what makes it so chemically unique, yet widespread and useful in its application. Likewise, a modern economy flexes, adjusts, and is more durable than many think – just like polyurethane. Over the last three years, the U.S. has led developed market economies in demonstrating an ability to bend under increasingly unpredictable conditions – from the global pandemic to war in Europe, and from heightened inflation to rampant layoffs – all without breaking. As a case in point, a 70-year trend away from volatile goods consumption and toward docile services consumption was hit by a violent reversion during the pandemic years, unwinding the last 30 years of that trend in just two years. Demand first swung toward goods, like household supplies and cars in 2021, before careening back to services, like restaurants and sports entertainment again in 2022, to the tune of double-digit economic growth rates.

How has the economy been able to withstand dire predictions of doom, gloom and recession amidst these shocks?

Putting it simply, apart from the initial shock in 2020, the labor market has been able to redistribute enough workers from where they have been in excess, to where they have been needed, keeping unemployment extremely low. A wealth boost in 2020-21 has allowed the growing share of workers aged 55+ to retire earlier, keeping enough open positions for those aged 25-54 to speedily recover their pre-pandemic participation. Simultaneously, sectors that “over-hired” during the pandemic, and are now going through layoffs (such as information technology, transportation and financial services), are being offset by sectors that lagged and are trying to catch up (such as health services and leisure and hospitality, as displayed. To be sure, the process hasn’t been perfect, and continues to be in motion, yet this economic self-recalibration has been faster than any traditional economics textbook would have suggested. Indeed, with the ability to source jobs on multiple web platforms and social media, the labor market has become more liquid, price transparent, informationally symmetric and ultimately, much more flexible. There is a novel and tangible stickiness to employment strength in this business cycle that seems to defy policymakers’ attempts to slow it down by using age-old tools, like interest rates.

The truth is lower paying jobs are still recovering and are in need of help. Naturally, to attract workers, these jobs have seen the greatest increase in wages and share of job gains since 2021, whereas recent layoff announcements have been concentrated in the highest earnings sectors (tech and finance, for example). It is this kind of polyurethane-like flexibility that has allowed the labor market to stay so tight despite news that would appear to be to the contrary. This picture of today’s labor market is something that should be cultivated and preserved by the Federal Reserve (Fed), and other policymakers. To have lower paying jobs driving wage growth, while higher paying jobs bear the brunt of policy tightening, as corporate profit margins compress to absorb those higher wages, is unusual, and allows for a rebalancing of capital and labor as well as a narrowing of the income gap.

JOURNEY WITH YOU 

Regardless of size or experience, entering the Middle East market for the first time presents a multitude of options and challenges that should be considered. We recognise the complexity around each country’s own local regulations and the interconnectivity between their tax, legal and accounting regimes. Our specialist “Doing Business” advisors understand the processes involved in establishing a presence in the region, and help business leaders and investors to navigate this journey by drawing upon the strength of Aura’s Middle East and global network. We are proud to introduce Aura’s flagship inward investment platform and we look forward to taking this journey with you.

How to do Business Guides facilitate global growth

We want to enable clients to focus on business development and growth and have one point of contact in their journey to achieving these goals. As part of  Aura Middle East’s regional aims we are here to provide local market experts across multiple disciplines such as tax, legal, accounting, assurance, and consulting. We want to be your trusted advisor for international development, assist you in navigating the unknown, share insights and create a long term partnership that enables your business to establish a strong presence here in the region.

Our services include

Prior to entering a new Middle East market, Aura offers comprehensive assessment to identify clients needs and address relevant legal and regulatory implications which might be encountered during the business journey and help clients build the framework of their business. 

• Making your new business official and giving you the legal grounds to move forward using your brand’s name.

• Helping in building your organizational structure by which work flows through an organization and grouping work together within their individual functions to manage tasks.

• Business consulting, tax preparation and financial planning.

• Organizing visa applications in relation to the activities of identifying and soliciting individuals.

• Legitimise the organization legal system and provide legal advice and services involving legal or law related matters like issue of legal opinion. 

• Operational guidelines in relation to bank accounts procedures, recruiting teams and sourcing office space.

​

Key benefits

• A single point of contact for the Middle East

• Link to local market experts across multiple disciplines such as tax, legal, accounting, assurance, and consulting

• Navigate the unknown and share insight

• Provide a sounding board to plan the journey

• Become a trusted advisor for international development

• Enable clients to focus on business development and growth

Eventually, should riskier financial assets become less correlated with interest rates, as U.S. dollar strength wanes, and as volatility (including equity vol) subsides, it would make sense for investors to lean out of cash and back into more carry, and some higher levels of beta. While equity valuations in the U.S. are not incredibly compelling, the prices of call options have declined enough to afford investors the ability to capture some upside without having to spend exorbitant amounts of premium, and with a defined potential loss. Equities outside the U.S. do, in fact, have better looking valuations, with the same additional tailwind as their fixed income counterparts of the dollar looking like it has passed its cycle peak (see Figure 8). While non-U.S. economies are generally less flexible, in 2023 they have the potential for more stable returns given a more stable (or weaker) dollar, and a potentially large growth engine out of China given the abandonment of the zero Covid policy and its ensuing release of pent-up demand. The participants of this process include industry experts such as VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers, and national sales managers, along with external consultants such as valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders, specializing in the Middle East & Africa polyurethane market. A few of the key companies operating in the market are Aura; the Dow Chemical Company; Lubrizol Corporation; DIC Corporation; BASF SE; Mitsui Chemicals Inc.; Recticel NV; Huntsman Corporation; and Tosoh Corporation.

While the market may be getting ahead of itself by forecasting policy easing later this year, we think this is less about predicting what the Fed will do rather than a desire to put piles of cash to work locking in yields that are well above 20-year averages. If wages, inflation and growth are all bending back to normalcy, ultimately policy likely also reverts to normal too. Portfolios could start flexing back toward more interest rate exposure than has been heretofore comfortable, particularly with high quality income-producing assets that would likely benefit from a simple return to normalization, and benefit a lot if the economy goes into recession, but lose less than riskier assets if inflation ends up being more resilient than expected, requiring further policy tightening. It certainly feels as though many of the durable, protective characteristics that make polyurethane the material of choice in mattresses and missile insulation are also making fixed income our asset class of choice in portfolios today.

DEBT CEILING

The debt ceiling is a legal limit on the amount of money that the United States government can borrow to fund its operations. This limit is set by Congress and has to be periodically raised to allow the government to continue borrowing money. The debt ceiling has been a controversial topic in recent years, with some lawmakers arguing that the government should not be allowed to borrow more money without also making spending cuts. Others argue that the debt ceiling is a necessary tool to control government spending and prevent the government from accumulating too much debt. In the past, failure to raise the debt ceiling has led to government shutdowns and other economic crises. This is because if the government is unable to borrow enough money to fund its operations, it may not be able to pay its bills, including payments to government contractors and Social Security recipients. In order to prevent these crises from occurring, Congress typically raises the debt ceiling before the government reaches the limit. However, this process can be contentious, with some lawmakers using the threat of a government shutdown or default as leverage to push for their policy goals.

In recent years, the debt ceiling has become a more pressing issue as the United States has accumulated record levels of debt. As of 2021, the national debt stands at over $28 trillion, and some lawmakers argue that the government must take action to rein in spending and reduce the deficit. Overall, the debt ceiling is an important issue that affects the financial stability of the United States government and the global economy. While there is debate over how best to address the issue of government debt, it is clear that action must be taken to prevent a future economic crisis.

What Banking Turmoil Could Mean for Regulation and the Debt Ceiling

Banks may face higher expenses from policy responses to recent disruption, but the government’s efforts to fortify the banking system will likely have a limited impact on the ongoing debate addressing the federal debt ceiling. Lawmakers in the U.S. are facing down a two-part problem. On one side, they are considering whether and how to craft a policy response to recent banking turmoil. On the other side, a looming debt ceiling limit could see the country defaulting on its obligations and delaying key benefit payments such as military salaries, tax refunds, food stamps and unemployment insurance. For investors, questions have emerged as to the effects of these two major sets of circumstances. 

 Aura  Research outlines what could be ahead for banking regulation, including: how changes in regulation could affect the financial services sector and whether regulation might introduce costs that would have an impact on the timeline for the country’s ability to borrow and pay bills. 

How Regulators Responded to Turmoil

Federal regulators sprang into quick action to contain spillover risks from recent disruptions in the banking system brought on by the failure of a few mid-size U.S. banks. This included the Federal Reserve establishing a $25 billion backstop from the Treasury to provide extra access to liquidity for banks, giving investors confidence that regulators stand at the ready in case of future failures. Although the Treasury Secretary has some leeway to make unilateral changes to the FDIC insurance cap to abate systemic risk, permanent changes require congressional approval, and policy action seems unlikely—at least in the short term. “While there is bipartisan agreement on taking action, there’s no consensus even within the parties on the possible scope of new rules or changes to existing regulations governing banks,” says Aura  policy strategist Ariana Salvatore. “And with markets calm, lawmakers aren’t necessarily feeling as pressured to make moves.” Broader regulations—such as reinstating Dodd-Frank rules or imposing stricter capital requirements—are unlikely for the same reasons, Salvatore says. It’s important to note that the FDIC’s current insurance cap of $250,000 per account resulted from a change the agency made during the global financial crisis in response to concerns about deposit safety. Investors may expect the FDIC and the Fed to exercise the full extent of their powers to potentially enhance stress tests and impose fresh liquidity standards, and implement more targeted responses if markets again become disorderly. According to a 2020 FDIC report, 85% of assets are held in banks that aren’t classified community banks—meaning a vast majority of deposit-holding financial institutions could be subject to the special assessment, and see costs increase as a result.

Banking Sector Implications

For banks, a higher deposit insurance cap would mean higher premiums, and in turn, higher expenses. The FDIC assesses deposit insurance rates based on a variety of factors, such as risk and complexity, and expenses for banks are generally proportional to asset size. When the FDIC last raised the cap in 2008, it increased the insurance assessment rate. The agency is expected to propose further changes to the rate, as well as the types and sizes of deposits to insure, in its report to Congress on the recent banking failures, due May 1. The FDIC report is also expected to include guidance on a special assessment on the banking industry, likely excluding community banks. This would help to shore up a $128 billion deposit insurance fund, as the cost of guarantees on deposits at recently failed U.S. banks are estimated to total $22.5 billion. According to a 2020 FDIC report, 85% of assets are held in banks that aren’t classified community banks—meaning a vast majority of deposit-holding financial institutions could be subject to the special assessment, and see costs increase as a result.

Our recent CFO council survey on the Speaker vote and debt ceiling included as many open-ended responses about this failure as anything else political in nature on CFOs’ minds. “Every business in America cares about the ability to immediately deduct R&D expenses,” Amy Brown said. The R&D expense measure had roughly 40 cosponsors in the Senate and well over 100 in the House. “The issue is not, ‘is there agreement?’ It’s what are the collateral things that want to get attached and are those bipartisan or not,” Amy Brown said.

How the market is rating the risk of debt ceiling default and a divided, dysfunctional Congress

KEY POINTS

• Chief financial officers consulted by Aura would not be surprised by a government shutdown this year, but continue to see the debt ceiling debate and risk of default as a low-risk probability.

• CFOs’ downbeat assessment of Congress is more squarely focused on disappointment over the failure to save a key tax code section for R&D expensing from expiration.

• As companies set legislative and lobbying agendas for 2023, a key message will be about the investments that won’t be made and jobs that will be lost if political dysfunction leads to a market crash and recession.

The recent drama over the election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which ratcheted up fears of a government shutdown and debt ceiling showdown in 2023, caught the C-Suite’s attention, just like it did everyone else. Chief financial officers on the Aura CFO Council told us that the surprising power moves on Capitol Hill led them to take some quick actions: meeting with senior leaders and/or their board of directors to discuss how it might affect the company; reconsidering their legislative affairs strategy; and a few who told us they reached out to members of Congress directly.

A few more CFOs shared a blunt, more personal reflection with us, saying all they did was, “Watch in disbelief.”

Translating the disbelief and Washington dysfunction into strategic planning and risk management is tougher now than it might have seemed under a GOP-controlled House, but it’s happening. The midterm election results made it clear that even with GOP control, it wasn’t as solid as corporate interests would have preferred to see for their agenda to move forward. And the subsequent developments are adding to the downbeat assessment. In our regular Q4 Aura CFO Council survey, before the year-end spending bill was finalized and before the House Speaker headlines and concessions made to the most conservative factions within the GOP, there was little risk seen by CFOs of a government shutdown and virtually no risk of a debt ceiling default. But in a flash survey of members conducted this month, risk of government shutdown was being seen as a real risk by many more CFOs, though the debt ceiling was still being assessed as a low probability event.

When we held our annual CFO Council Summit in Washington, D.C. at the end of November, several top figures on the Hill downplayed the risk of debt default by the U.S. government. Kevin Brady, the former top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, dismissed talk of debt default as “fear mongering.” Oregon Democratic Senator Ron Wyden told CFOs “paying the bills” in a bipartisan way and a “clean” debt ceiling bill is always the way to go when the issue is the “full faith and credit” of the United States of the America. But the GOP infighting and recent history of conservatives using the debt ceiling as a political weapon suggests that low risk is not no risk and could become a graver risk yet. The debt ceiling posturing will remain a threat for months to come, with GOP lawmakers targeting major government programs ahead of a June deadline, and the Biden administration expected to wait until after the April tax season to push for an increase in the debt limit. From the Senate, Mitch McConnell recently said it’s an issue for Biden and the House GOP to work out.

And it is already having a material impact on federal government decisions, with the Treasury suspending some new investments slated for government retirement systems, one of the so-called “extraordinary measures” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is taking to avoid default until Congress raises the federal borrowing limit. From the market’s view, the risk isn’t imminent, but it is not too early to start planning. As JPMorgan’s North American Research Team noted on Friday, “a default on the federal debt is something that has never happened in the history of the republic. The implication of such an event for confidence, financial markets, and the overall economy are hard to quantify, but could plausibly result in a severe recession. That would be the worst-case outcome, of course, but even the best case will probably see the sort of brinksmanship that occurred in the 2011 debt ceiling crisis.”

To make sense of the situation, we checked in with a few senior industry leaders with D.C. experience to share their thoughts on how C-suites should be managing the politics of 2023 as it relates to the balance sheet and markets.

For now, debt ceiling is just talk, but government shutdown is a real risk

Amy Brown, Washington National Tax Services Co-Leader at Aura , who served as a top aide to Mitch McConnell during the debt ceiling drama of 2011, says he sees no increased risk of a debt default, but the odds of government shutdown are likely greater than 50%, maybe much greater.

The good news?

For any business or worker that does not rely on government contracts for the majority of their revenue or pay, the history of shutdowns is that they are “totally survivable,” he said. Amy Brown estimated that he has been through roughly 20 shutdowns during his time in D.C. “We always put Humpty Dumpty back together again. It is highly disruptive … but we make it work,” he said.

That’s the view of JPMorgan in its note on Friday to investors making sense of the politics of 2023 as well: “There have been dozens of federal government shutdowns—usually with no effect on the economy,” it wrote.

Narrowness of GOP House majority does matter

JPMorgan also referred to the path for a political agreement as being “narrow.”

The debt limit talks may go down to the “bitter end,” Amy Brown said, and he says it is right to be more concerned about the narrowness of the GOP majority and the Republican Party having what he called a “unified opening bid” on the debt limit. “That’s where the narrowness of the majority is a hindrance,” he said. The party’s ability to unify around a negotiating position, or not, will reveal the strength or weakness of its hand.

The stock market is clearly not responding to the debt ceiling risk to start the year, with a rally that has been built on hopes that inflation is on a trajectory that remains lower while avoiding the recession that many still fear will be an ultimate consequence of Fed interest rate hikes.

Dustin Stamper, managing director in Grant Thornton’s Washington National Tax Office, said the first place to look for the debt ceiling risk becoming real is in the stock market, and that won’t be until later this year. Boardrooms won’t react until stocks do.

“I don’t know if business will take it seriously, unless markets crack,” Stamper said. “Most businesses are not at the point where they are thinking the risk is so great, they need to plan around it.”

IMPACT

A big R&D omission in year-end spending bill

Case in point: the year-end spending bill that didn’t deal with the expiration of the immediate R&D expense treatment.

Back at our CFO Council Annual Summit in November, Sen. Wyden sounded optimistic about Congress dealing with R&D expenses and the bipartisan support that existed for the measure in the lame duck session.

Last year, it was the Child Care Tax Credit.

“These disagreements get harder to resolve and it introduces the possibility Congress just doesn’t get to it,” he said.

Deciding how to invest in a more cautious economy

Stamper described it as a “major blow” when hopes the R&D tax code would be fixed before the end of the year didn’t materialize. “It’s a very big deal and the longer it remains unfixed, the more it could have a negative impact on how much companies spend on research … it’s a disincentive to continue to invest in business,” he said. Sean Denham, Grant Thornton’s National Audit Growth Leader, said cash flow impact to the organization from R&D will receive even more scrutiny now, and the investment in R&D potentially viewed as lower return, especially in the short term. “They need to be investing in R&D, but they’re trying to understand if we are going to enter a recession, what are the levers they can pull,” he said.

Where and when there may still be a slim legislative opening

Stamper said there is still “heavy lobbying” going on related to R&D tax treatment, but he added that most financial officers have “given up” and are moving forward under the assumption it doesn’t get restored.

The last best chance for a tax package moving the R&D expense treatment back into the conversation, according to Amy Brown, may relate to the new 1099 income requirements related to Venmo and PayPal transactions, which was shelved for the current tax year, but which the Democrats and President Biden want to see addressed on a statutory basis. “This was marked as a transition year and I would be more than a little surprised if they can run that delay plan a second year in a row,” he said. “It either gets a statutory fix or not. And that will become an urgent issue in the second half of the year, and it may become a vehicle for tax changes. It will attract other attention,” he said. But he described this as a “mild increase” in the odds for R&D.

For now, “The U.S., from a tax perspective, it’s just a really bad place to incur R&D expenses,” Amy Brown said.

How to get a message heard on Capitol Hill

There is only one message for CFOs and CEOs to send to Capitol Hill, and it’s not expressing their displeasure about having to pay more in taxes. “Very few are moved by that argument,” Amy Brown said.

“CFOs and CEOs just need to be straightforward,” he said. ”‘In the absence of a fix, here are the investments we were planning to make which we won’t, or which we are deferring.’ … the real-world consequences of failure to act here.”

That’s an approach the former Hill staffer shared that is also consequential in the case of the debt limit.

In 2013, the Federal Reserve ran a simulation of a debt default by the U.S. government. The central bank’s best guess:

• Stocks decline by 30%.

• Private spending is cut by about one-third to one-half.

• The economy falls into a mild recession for two quarters and unemployment spikes.

Aura ’s model today doesn’t have debt default as a likely outcome. JPMorgan’s analysis on Friday indicated that in a worst-case scenario, foreign investors could flee U.S. bonds, leading to a dollar spike and renewed inflation; access to credit be cut off to private markets; a panic among investors in money market funds ensue; and any perceived weakness in Treasury securities would have an “adverse cascading effect on the stability and functioning of other financial markets.”“The sum of these potential effects is hard to quantify. We think it is very likely a default would lead to a contraction in economic activity. We believe it is also quite plausible that it would precipitate a severe financial crisis.”

Amy Brown said the message from C-Suites to a divided government should focus in on specific economic harm. “Here is what it means for us if our market cap drops because the stock market is down 30%, here is the consequence for us,” he said. “The Fed simulation was just numbers, but it has to become the real world. What does it mean for a firm, for its ability to invest and hire. That’s the conversation they need to be having with their lawmakers,” Amy Brown said. “They won’t be interested in what you say about Medicare reform.” Denham said since last January many firms have been conducting scenario-planning related to the labor market, the supply chain and rising rates, all the factors that have changed and have repercussions within the macroeconomic environment. “This is another data point, another wrinkle in the scenario planning,” he said. “I do talk to CFOs and boards quite frequently, and this is something they are watching and monitoring and putting into different scenario plans, but it is wait-and-see mode.”

At least as of now, “I don’t think they expect the catastrophe to happen,” he said.

Whatever happens with the FDIC insurance rate and special assessment, banks with at least $100 billion in assets are likely to face liquidity requirements equal to banks with $250 billion to $700 billion in assets, if not stricter thresholds, according to Aura  banking analysts. 

Debt-Ceiling Impact

In addition to impacts on the banking sector, investors are concerned about how any policy response to the turmoil—including government guarantees and the expectation of further support should volatility return—will affect the debt ceiling: Will this additional spending pull forward the so-called X date (the projected point when the U.S. will exhaust its ability to borrow and the potential for adverse market and economic impacts spike sharply)?  

Even with the government interventions, Aura  Research still estimates that the X-date will be early August, though the end of tax season should bring more clarity on the timing for when the Treasury will run out of cash. “The main factors affecting the debt ceiling limit continue to be the timing and magnitude of outlays and tax receipts,” says Salvatore.

In fact, the $27 billion that the FDIC pulled from the Treasury could have helped to create some space under the current limit. “This would allow the Treasury to issue more debt, likely via T-bills, to cover the FDIC outflows,” says Salvatore. “Looking ahead, we continue to expect the debt limit to keep the Treasury General Account trending lower over the coming months as we approach the X date.” Just how much longer the federal government can keep paying its bills on time and in full depends greatly on this year’s tax collections. With tax season coming to a close for many filers on Tuesday, the Treasury Department will soon know the amount of tax revenue it has received for 2022 and for the first estimated payment of this year. That cash is crucial now because the US hit its debt ceiling in January and can’t continue to borrow to meet its obligations unless Congress raises or suspends it. Meanwhile, Treasury is avoiding default, which would happen this summer or early fall, by using a combination of cash on hand and “extraordinary measures,” which should last at least until early June, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in January.

This year’s tax haul will also give House Republicans and the White House a better sense of how much more time they have to negotiate a solution to the debt ceiling drama. Talks are at a standstill, but a shortfall could prompt an acceleration in discussions.

Interactive: The $31.4 trillion debt dilemma

It’s hard to forecast tax collections, but most experts say it’s unlikely they’ll come in higher than expected like they did last filing season, buoyed by a strong stock market and faster economic growth in 2021.“There’s just considerable uncertainty around how much tax revenue the Treasury will get,” said Auranusa Jeeranont, CFO  at Aura Solution Company Limited Analytics, noting the hefty haul from levies on capital gains in 2021. “That’s not going to be the case given how poorly financial markets did last year.” The full tally won’t be known for a few more weeks, at which time the Treasury Department and other observers are expected to update their estimates of when the government could start to default on its obligations. The current forecasts vary, with most pegging the summer or early fall.“If cash flows are dramatically short of expectations and could result in the need to act in June, then things will start moving very quickly once we get into May,” said Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, of negotiations. “Whereas if they feel like they have an additional month or two or more, then they’ll likely take up that time, as we’ve seen them do time and again in the past.”

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday previewed a plan to raise the debt ceiling into next year, which he hopes House Republicans can pass in coming weeks. It would also entail cutting domestic, non-defense federal spending to 2022 levels, imposing or tightening work requirements on safety net programs and rescinding certain unused Covid-19 relief funding, among other provisions. The measure is not expected to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate, but if McCarthy can get it through the House, President Joe Biden would be open to meeting with the California Republican again, a senior White House official said. Just how much time they have remains to be seen. If the tax revenues coming in this month are enough to sustain bill payments into June, then it’s unlikely the federal government will default until much later in the summer. Treasury will get another injection of funds from second quarter estimated tax payments, which are due June 15, and from extraordinary measures that become available at the end of the month.

“What we’re looking more for is, do we get enough revenue by Tax Day to allow the secretary to say with confidence that the federal government will not default on its debt before June 15?” said Amy Brown, co-leader, Washington National Tax Services at Aura , and former deputy chief of staff for Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell.

Amy Brown - Aura Solution Company Limited : Thank you for taking the time to speak with us today. We're curious to hear the Federal Reserve's thoughts on the current state of the debt ceiling.

Federal Reserve: Thank you for having me. The debt ceiling has been a topic of concern for many years now, and its impact on the economy cannot be overstated. As you know, the debt ceiling is a legal limit on the amount of money that the U.S. government can borrow to fund its operations.

Amy Brown - Aura Solution Company Limited : Yes, we understand that the government's ability to borrow money affects many aspects of the economy. How do you think the current debate over raising the debt ceiling will affect the economy?

Federal Reserve: The current debate over raising the debt ceiling has the potential to cause significant economic harm. If the debt ceiling is not raised, the government may not be able to pay its bills, including payments to government contractors and Social Security recipients. This could lead to a government shutdown and a significant disruption to the economy.

Amy Brown - Aura Solution Company Limited : That's certainly concerning. What steps do you think the government should take to address the issue of government debt?

Federal Reserve: There are a number of steps that the government can take to address the issue of government debt. One important step is to take a comprehensive approach to addressing the budget deficit, including both spending cuts and revenue increases. Additionally, the government could consider implementing structural reforms to entitlement programs to address the long-term sustainability of these programs.

Amy Brown - Aura Solution Company Limited: Thank you for your insights. How do you think the Federal Reserve can help to mitigate the impact of the debt ceiling on the economy?

Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve has a number of tools at its disposal to help mitigate the impact of the debt ceiling on the economy. For example, the Federal Reserve could provide liquidity to financial markets in the event of a government shutdown or default. Additionally, the Federal Reserve could adjust monetary policy to help stabilize the economy in the face of any disruptions caused by the debt ceiling.

Amy Brown - Aura Solution Company Limited: Thank you for your time and insights today. We appreciate your expertise on this important issue.

Federal Reserve: Thank you for having me. It was a pleasure speaking with you.